CIDRAP OPINES ON SARS-COVID-19 : MORE PAIN BEFORE GAIN - 18 TO 24 MONTHS AHEAD FOR IMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT : ASSESSMENT

CIDRAP APRIL REPORT
MAY 8TH     SINCE TIME BEGAN : salus populi suprema est lex - the right of the people is the supreme law : IN TRUTH WE TRUST     2020 A.D.E.
"While the R0 is not influenced by herd immunity (which is the proportion of the population that is immune to a virus), either generated by natural infection or by vaccination, immunity in the population can influence the effective reproductive number (RE), which is similar to the R0 but does not depend on having a fully susceptible population (Delamater 2019). Immunity in the population can effectively diminish or end an outbreak by driving RE below 1 (Fine 2011)."

 "The course of these pandemics was not substantially influenced by a vaccination campaign, except for the 2009- 10 pandemic, during which vaccine initially became available in the United States about 6 months after the onset of the pandemic, although substantial quantities of vaccine were not available until after the pandemic had peaked in most parts of the country. One report estimated that the vaccination program prevented 700,000 to 1,500,000 clinical cases, 4,000 to 10,000 hospitalizations, and 200 to 500 deaths in the United States (Borse 2013). "
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E PROTEIN
DENGUE FEVER VIRUS
S PROTEIN
SPIKED


GETTING TO KNOW YOUR AMINO ACIDS FAMILY TREE
Amino acids are organic compounds that combine to form proteins. Amino acids and proteins are the building blocks of life. When proteins are digested or broken down, amino acids are left. The human body uses amino acids to make proteins to help the body: Break down food. Of the 21 amino acids common to all life forms, the nine amino acids humans cannot synthesize are phenylalanine, valine, threonine, tryptophan, methionine, leucine, isoleucine, lysine, and histidine. Amino Acids In The Human Family Tree. How To Understand The Difference Between Life Forms And Non-Life Forms On Earth. Single Cell Life.
"There are several different scenarios for the future of the COVID-19 pandemic, and some of these are consistent with what occurred during past influenza pandemics. These can be summarized as follows and are illustrated in the figure below.

Scenario 1: The first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and then consistently over a 1- to 2-year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021. The occurrence of these waves may vary geographically and may depend on what mitigation measures are in place and how they are eased. Depending on the height of the wave peaks, this scenario could require periodic reinstitution and subsequent relaxation of mitigation measures over the next 1 to 2 years.


Scenario 2: The first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter of 2020 and one or more smaller subsequent waves in 2021. This pattern will require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. This pattern is similar to what was seen with the 1918-19 pandemic (CDC 2018). During that pandemic, a small wave began in March 1918 and subsided during the summer months. A much larger peak then occurred in the fall of 1918. A third peak occurred during the winter and spring of 1919; that wave subsided in the summer of 1919, signaling the end of the pandemic. The 1957-58 pandemic followed a similar pattern, with a smaller spring wave followed by a much larger fall wave (Saunders-Hastings 2016). Successive smaller waves continued to occur for several years (Miller 2009). The 2009-10 pandemic also followed a pattern of a spring wave followed by a larger fall wave (Saunders-Hastings 2016).


Scenario 3: The first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a “slow burn” of ongoing transmission and case occurrence, but without a clear wave pattern. Again, this pattern may vary somewhat geographically and may be influenced by the degree of mitigation measures in place in various areas. While this third pattern was not seen with past influenza pandemics, it remains a possibility for COVID-19. This third scenario likely would not require the reinstitution of mitigation measures, although cases and deaths will continue to occur. 


Whichever scenario the pandemic follows (assuming at least some level of ongoing mitigation measures), we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant COVID-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas. As the pandemic wanes, it is likely that SARS-CoV-2 will continue to circulate in the human population and will synchronize to a seasonal pattern with diminished severity over time, as with other less pathogenic coronaviruses, such as the betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1, (Kissler 2020) and past pandemic influenza viruses have done."


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